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Daily analysis, GBPUSD, Gold, Soft commodities.

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 22nd October 2014

GBPUSD technical analysis

GBP/USD opened overnight at 1.6114 and after an initial drop to 1.6107, rallied to a session high of 1.6132 before closing the session at 1.6116. MPC rate and asset purchase votes were on expectation of 2-0-7 and 0-0-9 respectively. The MPC has said that they see weak price pressure and low wage growth as an obstacle to UK GDP growth which is losing momentum. Cable has fallen 100 points in the last two hours hitting a low so far of 1.6012.

Gold (XAU) technical analysis (chart)

Gold did little overnight unable to break above $1249.5 or below $1247. Concerns over slower growth in China still add support to the metal as well as weaker global economic outlooks. Spot gold currently trades at $1247.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Thursday 23rd October 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
02:30 Australia Medium indicator importanceBusiness Confidence September     6 6
  A measure of the prevailing sentiment among business leaders. This is based on querying expectations for new orders and impressions on the general economic health. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
03:45 China High indicator importanceHSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI September   50.2 50.2  
  Survey asks about 430 purchasing managers to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Above 50 is expansion; below 50 is contraction. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:30 Germany Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing October   49.5 49.9  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:30 Germany Medium indicator importancePMI - Services October   55 55.7  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing October   49.9 50.3  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI - Services October   52 52.4  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales mm September % -0.1 0.4  
  Retail Sales mm Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales yy September % 2.8 3.9  
  Retail Sales yy Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importanceInitial Jobless Claims w/e k 282 264  
  Measures the number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceJobless 4-week Average w/e k   283.5  
  Measures the 4 week average number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceJobless continuous claims w/e Mln 2.38 2.389  
  No Description Given Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceNational Activity Index September     -0.21  
  This may refer to a particular stock or an entire exchange. Generally this term implies a specific period of time Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
15:45 United States Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing October   57 57.5  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 Euro Zone Low indicator importanceConsumer Confidence October   -12 -11.4  
  The degree of optimism that consumers are expressing for the state of the economy through their saving and spending activity. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
16:30 United States Medium indicator importanceNatural Gas Storage w/e Bln 97 94  
  Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


Should RBA consider raising interest rates?

Written by The easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 20th October 2014

The Australian dollar had a mixed performance during last week against the U.S. dollar, mainly due to economic developments and results from the world’s largest economy, and risk seekers following the AUD/USD enjoyed some price action full of volatility. However, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers often refer to the Aussie as overpriced and expect the AUD/USD’s rate to drop.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and other Bank’s board members pointed that the AUD’s value could weaken parallel to, or as a result of, the devaluation of important commodity prices. The Aussie has always been linked with the performance of commodity prices such as iron, coal, gold, and crude oil as these make the bulk of Australia’s export market, and therefore that is why it is known within the markets as a “commodity currency”. This implies that drops in commodity prices and/or reduced demand for those by China, Australia’s largest export partner, make the Australian dollar vulnerable.

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