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Daily analysis for GBPUSD, Gold, Sugar and Coffee

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 21st August 2014

GBPUSD technical analysis

GBP/USD traded a 1.6564/1.6600 range overnight after a hawkish sounding Fed. Released minutes from their last meeting showed that members debated about raising interest rates sooner rather than later.  U.K. retail sales figures released this morning showed a fall from last month with a print of 0.1% vs. expectations of 0.4%.

 Gold (XAU) technical analysis

Gold extended losses to a fifth session, sliding 1 percent to its lowest in two months, after the U.S. dollar strengthened on indications from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.  Spot gold fell as much as 1.2 percent to $1276, its lowest since 19th June, before recovering slightly by 06:35 GMT to trade down 0.9 percent to $1280.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Thursday 21st August 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
03:35 Japan Medium indicator importanceFlash Mfg PMI August   50.8   52.4
  Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
03:45 China High indicator importanceHSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI August   51.7   50.3
  Survey asks about 430 purchasing managers to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Above 50 is expansion; below 50 is contraction. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importanceFlash Mfg PMI August   51.3 51.8 50.8
  Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importanceFlash Serv PMI August   53.5 56.7 53.5
  Markit Flash Services PMI Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales mm July % 0.4 0.1 0.1
  Retail Sales mm Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales yy July % 3 3.6 2.6
  Retail Sales yy Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceJobless 4-week Average w/e k   295.75 300.75
  Measures the 4 week average number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceJobless continuous claims w/e Mln 2.518 2.544 2.5
  No Description Given Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States High indicator importanceInitial Jobless Claims w/e k 300 311 298
  Measures the number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
15:45 United States Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August   55.7 55.8 58
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Medium indicator importancePhiladelphia fed manufacturing index August   19.2 23.9 28
  Survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States High indicator importanceExisting home sales-units July Mln 5.02 5.04 5.15
  No Description Given Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
16:00 Euro Zone Low indicator importanceConsumer Confidence August   -9 -8.4 -10
  The degree of optimism that consumers are expressing for the state of the economy through their saving and spending activity. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
16:30 United States Medium indicator importanceNatural Gas Storage w/e Bln 83 78 88
  Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium

If it’s volatility you want, go for the sterling

Written by Niki Nikolaou

Weekly Outlook - 19th August 2014

Sterling bulls endured further disappointment on today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. According to the release by the National Statistics Office, U.K. inflation for July slowed to 1.6% compared to 1.9% for the previous month. The reading supported recent comments made by Bank of England Governor Mike Carney, who voiced his view for gradual steps towards any rate increases. The biggest contributor to the slowing down of July’s inflation was the clothing industry with a decrease of 0.3%, whereas the overall retail sector’s growth slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%. Even though inflation levels are exceeding policymakers’ expectations, the failure of British wages to grow accordingly implies more economic difficulties for British consumers. The GBP/USD currently trades at 1.6646 and has sustained daily losses of 0.5% up to this point.

The British currency managed to edge upwards last Friday following a report on strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The policymakers’ GDP estimate for the second quarter of this year persists strong at 0.8%, according to the report released by the National Statistics Office. Moreover, the growth estimate for Q2 2014 compared to Q2 of the previous year was revised upwards to 3.2%, and surpassed forecasts calculated by analysts for 3.1% increase. Market participants who supported the stance that the British economy is on its way to recovery were rewarded as the cable was lifted by the news that the services sector, the U.K.’s largest, grew by 1% according to the same report.

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