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NZDUSD dips as central bank take dovish turn. Plus gbp, gold, oil technical levels.

Written by Jay Elliott-Purdy

Forex Analysis - 24th July 2014

NZDUSD technical analysis

The New Zealand Dollar slipped 130pips yesterday to a six-month low as the central bank made dovish statements in contrast to a previously very hawkish stance. When a central bank become more dovish it is more likely to keep interest rates low in order to stimulate economic growth. This historically has meant less demand for a currency in the short-term but if traders think that it’s the best decision for the long-run GDP then the currency may strengthen instead.

nzdusd chart 24/07/14

GBPUSD technical analysis

GBP/USD did little overnight after dovish BoE MPC minutes. Trading between 1.7032/42 with little interest noted. Retail sales released this morning showed a miss on market expectation with a figure of 0.1% vs. 0.2% which forced Cable down to a morning low of 1.7010 so far.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Thursday 24th July 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
03:45 China Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing June   51.2 50.7 52
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:30 Germany Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July   52 52 52.9
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:30 Germany Medium indicator importancePMI - Services July   54.5 54.6 56.6
  Gauge for the overall performance of the service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July   51.7 51.8 51.9
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI - Services July   52.7 52.8 54.4
  Gauge for the overall performance of the service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales mm June % 0.3 -0.5 0.1
  Retail Sales mm Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceRetail Sales yy June % 3.9 3.9 3.6
  Retail Sales yy Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importanceInitial Jobless Claims w/e k 308 302 284
  Measures the number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceJobless 4-week Average w/e k   309 302
  Measures the 4 week average number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but are actively seeking work Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceJobless continuous claims w/e Mln 2.51 2.507 2.5
  No Description Given Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
15:45 United States Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July Mln 57.5 57.3 56.3
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States High indicator importanceNew Home Sales June Mln 0.479 0.504 0.406
  Records sales of newly constructed residences. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
16:00 United States High indicator importanceNew Homes Change June %   18.6 -8.1
  Records sales change of newly constructed residences. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
16:30 United States Medium indicator importanceNatural Gas Storage w/e Bln 95 107 90
  Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
01:50 Japan Medium indicator importanceConsumer Price Index (CPI) y/y June % 2.7 2.8  
  An inflationary indicator that measures the yearly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food, and transportation. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


Low CPI data mirrors Eurozone’s fragile economy

Written by Jay Elliott-Purdy

Weekly Outlook - 21st July 2014

The release of Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the best indicator of an economy’s inflation, last Thursday revealed that the gauge remained at low levels. The index for June managed to increase to 0.1% from a -0.1% for the previous month and was in line with expectations, whereas on an annual basis the index remained on the 0.5% level and was also the same with what analysts had expected. The core CPI also increased marginally to 0.8% from 0.7% increase in May. The European Central Bank (ECB) noted earlier this month that their expectations on inflationary levels remained unchanged, and ECB’s President Mario Draghi said that he expected inflation to remain low during the coming months.

Low inflation is currently the Eurozone’s biggest threat to economic recovery, and policymakers are working towards avoiding any further decrease. The ECB last month decided to trim its benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.15%, and the deposit rate from zero to -0.1% in an effort to encourage banks to lend to businesses. Eurozone’s common currency had a weekly loss of 0.6% and the EUR/USD is traded at 1.3518.

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