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Freeeedom!! Imran Allana's take on GBPUSD for today

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 18th September 2014

With the Scottish referendum on independence being decided today the market has been buzzing with anticipation and in trepidation.

The Latest polls from YouGov, Panelbase, Survation, Opinium and ICM show support for independence at 48 percent compared with 52 percent in favour of the union. Ipsos MORI has it even closer at 49 percent and 51 percent. Surveys also showed that as many as 600,000 voters were still undecided. Polling stations are due to close today at 21:00 GMT with results expected early tomorrow.

GBPUSD daily chart 18/09/14

GBP/USD has been the biggest mover on this news over the past two weeks. Since the start of the month, Cable was trading comfortably in the 1.6600 area. As polls showed that the Yes camp was gathering more and more momentum, the pair has tumbled to an area of 1.6055, which equates to a move of over 500 points in little over two weeks. This movement is significant compared to recent volatility. Since this low was hit, Sterling has managed to gain some ground back as the Yes campaign momentum seemingly plateaus.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Friday 19th September 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
08:00 Germany Medium indicator importanceProducer Prices August % -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
  Producer Price Index Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceConsumer Price Index (CPI) m/m August %   -0.2  
  An inflationary indicator that measures the monthly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food, and transportation. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada Medium indicator importanceConsumer Price Index (CPI) y/y August % 2.1 2.1 2.1
  An inflationary indicator that measures the yearly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food, and transportation. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceCore CPI m/m August % 0.2 -0.1 0.5
  The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada Medium indicator importanceCore CPI y/y August % 1.8 1.7 2.1
  The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


Markets overlook ‘outstanding’ Aussie employment data

Written by The easy-forex Team

Weekly Outlook - 15th September 2014

Impressive Australian labour market data failed to convince traders on the economy’s recovery as a detailed analysis of the report raised questions regarding the future of the unemployment situation.

Thursday’s economic headlines included a release on Australian unemployment due to the noteworthy decrease in workforce. The report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Employment Change managed to erase last month’s decrease and even showed a massive increase of 121,000 people employed in August compared to -4,100 in July. The unexpected, but also welcome, data surprised the markets considerably as analysts were expecting an increase in August’s employment of only 12,000. However, the stunning Australian employment change didn’t persuade market participants considerably after a closer look at the results. The strong 121,000 jobs created consist of a noteworthy increase in part-time jobs by 106,800 and 14,200 in full-time jobs, which immediately implies that almost 9 out of 10 people who found a job in August, did so as part-time employees. As reported by the Bureau of Statistics, the unusual figures were affected by a change in the survey group and despite the Bureau’s reasoning, the data are still quite asymmetrical and the improvement in the labour market might be only temporary. After an immediate rally against the USD following the employment data, the Aussie went on to slip by 0.5% on that day alone as it slipped by a considerable 3.6% on last week’s trading.

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