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Technical and fundamental update for Cable, Gold and Brent

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 30th September 2014

GBUSD technical analysis

GBP/USD rallied modestly from a session low of 1.6225 overnight to achieve a high of 1.6288 on broad USD weakness. Cable has since fallen from that high on the release of the current account balance figure this morning, showing a deficit of £23.1 billion, a marked difference from the market expectation of £16.9 billion.

Gold (XAU) technical analysis

Gold held steady above a nine month low as Asian equities remained unsettled by political unrest in Hong Kong, but was poised to post its sharpest monthly loss since June 2013. Spot gold edged up to $1216 by 06:27 GMT, after dipping in the last two sessions.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Wednesday 1st October 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
03:00 China Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August   51.1 51.1 51.1
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
03:30 Australia High indicator importanceRetail Sales August % 0.4 0.4 0.1
  A government index that measures the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:30 Switzerland Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing September   52 52.9 50.4
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing September   50.5 50.5 50.3
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing September   52.5 52.5 51.6
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:15 United States High indicator importanceADP National Employment September k 210 204  
  No Description Given Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
16:00 United States Medium indicator importanceConstruction Spending August % 0.5 1.8  
  Construction spending gauges the level of construction activity in the specified region. It looks at both residential and non-residential construction Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Medium indicator importanceISM - non manufacturing September   58.5 59  
  ISM Non-Manufacturing is a gauge of business conditions in non-manufacturing industries, based on measures of employment trends, prices and new orders. Though non-manufacturing sectors make up the majority of the economy, the ISM Non-Manufacturing has less market impact because non-manufacturing data tends to be more cyclical and predictable. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:30 United States High indicator importanceCrude Oil Inventories September Mln 1.2 -4.3  
  Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh


Is there an end to the euro’s free fall?

Written by The easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 29th September 2014

Eurozone’s common currency sustained considerable losses against the U.S. dollar after fresh data pushed the euro on another downward spiral.

As volatility within the forex markets slowly grows back, there is still no solid sign of growth for the euro with some analysts claiming that there is more time needed for the Eurozone’s economy to pick up. The latest factor that gave pressure to the EUR was the release of sluggish business data. Even though there was hope that the current weak state of the EUR/USD would spur some much-needed business activity and encourage preference towards European products and services, the latest release of the Markit PMI last Tuesday proved otherwise. Eurozone’s preliminary Markit Services PMI index for September slowed down to 52.8 in relation to 53.1 for the previous month, and also missed expectations for 53.0, whereas the Markit Manufacturing PMI index also edged slightly downwards to 50.5 from previous month’s 50.7.

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