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Daily technical and fundamental analysis for EURUSD, USDJPY and Oil.

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 6th January 2015

EURUSD technical analysis

EUR/USD opened the Asian trading session at 1.1932 after recovering from 1.1887 overnight as long-dated treasury yields fell sharply and as USD/JPY led USD broadly lower. Dipping to 1.1927 early, it grinded higher still to 1.1955 with the move higher in AUD/USD keeping the USD on the defensive. Sentiment remains decidedly bearish however, with uncertainties surrounding the Greek election on January 25th and ECB policy on January 22nd.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Tuesday 1st September 2015

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
03:00 China Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August   49.8 50 49.7
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
03:30 Australia Building Approvals m/m August % 2.9 -5.2 4.2
  Change in the number of new building approvals issued  
03:45 China High indicator importanceCaixin Final Manufacturing PMI August   47.2 47.1 47.3
  Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
06:30 Australia High indicator importanceRBA Rate Decision August % 2 2 2
  The Reserve Bank of Australia's Cash Rate Target decision has a huge influence on its financial markets. Changes in rates affect interest rates in consumer loans, mortgages, and bond rates. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
06:30 Australia High indicator importanceRBA Statement August        
  No Description Given Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:30 Switzerland Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August Idx 49.7   52.2
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:55 Germany Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August Idx 53.2 53.18 53.3
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:55 Germany Medium indicator importanceUnemployment - Change August Mln 2.8 2.773 2.79
  A measure of the rate of change in unemployment with the previous measured period Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:55 Germany High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate August % 6.4 6.4 6.4
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:55 Germany High indicator importanceUnemployment August Mln   2.799 2.796
  The Unemployment Rate refers to the percentage of people currently out of work, but actively seeking employment and willing to work. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August Idx 52.4 52.4 52.3
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom Low indicator importanceMortgage Lending Data July Bln 2.8 2.615 2.709
  Tracking new home mortgages and refinances and serves as a current indicator for the housing market. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
10:30 United Kingdom Medium indicator importanceMortgage Approvals July k 68 66.582 68.764
  An estimate of all new approvals regarding loans used to finance the purchase of real estate, generally with specified payment periods and interest rates. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom Low indicator importanceM4 Money Supply m/m July %   -0.5 1
  Change in the amount of domestic currency in banks and in circulation. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
10:30 United Kingdom Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July Idx 52 51.9 51.5
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
11:00 Euro Zone High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate July % 11.1 11.1 10.9
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceGDP Q2 qq Qtr II %   -0.1 -0.1
  Measures the quarterly value of goods and services produced within a country. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada Medium indicator importanceGDP Q2 yy Qtr II % -1 -0.6 -0.5
  Measures the quarterly value of goods and services produced within a country on a yearly basis. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceGDP m/m June % 0.2 -0.2 0.5
  Measures the value of goods and services produced within a country on a monthly basis. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:55 United States Low indicator importanceRedbook mm w/e %   0.3 0.2
  An index that reflects the same-store sales of a group of companies that account for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:55 United States Low indicator importanceRedbook yy w/e %   1.7 1.3
  An index that reflects the same-store sales of a group of companies that account for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
15:45 United States Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August Idx   52.9 53
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Medium indicator importanceConstruction Spending July % 0.6 0.1 0.7
  Construction spending gauges the level of construction activity in the specified region. It looks at both residential and non-residential construction Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Medium indicator importanceISM Manufacturing August Idx 52.6 52.7 51.1
  ISM Manufacturing assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


U.K. unemployment boosts demand for the pound

Written by easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 18th May 2015

Labour market data from the United Kingdom revealed that the unemployment rate continued mov-ing downwards and kept the sterling on the same uptrend it began during the general elections near-ly two weeks ago and unexpectedly resulted with a Conservative party majority.

The report released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that 202,000 new jobs were filled during the first quarter of 2015, and that the unemployment rate for the same period fell to 5.5% compared to 5.6% during the previous quarter. The encouraging data provided the markets with further confidence that the labour market is continuously improving, and therefore boosted demand for the British pound. But although last week’s data pointed to an improving British econo-my, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney sounded rather concerned about the inflation levels during the BOE inflation report on Wednesday. Mark Carney’s comments haven’t really re-versed the GBP/USD’s upward trend, but maybe what he wanted to achieve was to stop the cur-rency pair from swiftly climbing back to the 1.60 level seen during November 2014. Moreover, the BOE’s dovish view of British inflation keeps blocking forecasts for an interest rate hike and could result in a sterling sell off. The GBP/USD on Wednesday gained by 0.4%, and previously on Mon-day it rose by 0.9%. On a weekly basis GBP/USD climbed from 1.54362 to 1.57265 and disap-pointed those who were expecting a pull back of the rate after the general elections.

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