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Daily technical and fundamental analysis for EURUSD, USDJPY and Oil.

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 6th January 2015

EURUSD technical analysis

EUR/USD opened the Asian trading session at 1.1932 after recovering from 1.1887 overnight as long-dated treasury yields fell sharply and as USD/JPY led USD broadly lower. Dipping to 1.1927 early, it grinded higher still to 1.1955 with the move higher in AUD/USD keeping the USD on the defensive. Sentiment remains decidedly bearish however, with uncertainties surrounding the Greek election on January 25th and ECB policy on January 22nd.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Friday 22nd May 2015

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
08:00 Germany High indicator importanceGDP Q1 q/q Qtr 1 % 0.3 0.3 0.3
  Measures the quarterly value of goods and services produced within a country. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
08:00 Germany High indicator importanceGDP Q1 y/y Qtr 1 % 1 1.1 1.1
  Measures the quarterly value of goods and services produced within a country. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:00 United Kingdom High indicator importanceBoE Governor speaks          
  The BoE Governor is the voice of the bank and his speeches provide the international investment community with insight into the BoE's monetary policy. When the Governor speaks, market participants pay close attention to a number of areas. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Euro Zone High indicator importanceECB President speaks          
  When the President speaks, markets focus heavily on the language used in the President's speech. If the President is cautious about the inflationary outlook for the economy ("Hawkish"), then the market sees a higher likelihood of future rate increases. Optimism in the President's outlook ("Dovish") would suggest to markets that inflation is in check and that future rate increases are less likely, with the possibility of declines in rates. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Germany High indicator importanceIfo business climate May Idx 108.3 108.6 108.5
  No Description Given Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Germany IFO current Conditions May Idx 113.5 113.9 114.3
  No Description Given  
10:00 Germany High indicator importanceIFO Expectations May Idx 103.1 103.5 103
  Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom Low indicator importancePublic Sector net borrowing April Bln 8.1 7.391 6.816
  The amount of new debt held by the UK governments. In the long run, the public sector account must be in balance in order for the economy to be sustainable. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
10:30 United Kingdom Low indicator importancePSNCR April Bln 19.444 19.44 -4.044
  Equals the central government net cash requirement plus local authorities contributions, i.e. their market and overseas borrowing, measured net of their purchases of their public sector debt. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceCore CPI m/m April % 0.1 0.7 -0.1
  The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada Medium indicator importanceCore CPI y/y April % 1 1.2 0.8
  The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 Canada Medium indicator importanceCore CPI y/y April % 2.4 2.4 2.3
  The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceCore CPI m/m April % 0.2 0.6 0.1
  The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceRetail Sales March % 0.3 1.7 0.7
  A government index that measures the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceRetail Sales Ex Autos March % 0.4 2 0.5
  Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles since they have a big monetary value and are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importanceCore CPI m/m April % 0.2 0.2 0.3
  The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceCore CPI y/y April % 1.7 1.8 1.8
  The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the eight most volatile items. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceReal Earnings April %   -0.2  
  Calculated by the following: Total Revenues minus cost of sales, operating expenses, and taxes, over a given period of time. Also known as income. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States High indicator importanceConsumer Price Index (CPI) m/m April % 0.2 0.2 0.1
  An inflationary indicator that measures the monthly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food, and transportation. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceConsumer Price Index (CPI) y/y April % -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
  An inflationary indicator that measures the yearly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing, electricity, food, and transportation. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
15:30 Euro Zone High indicator importanceECB President speaks          
  When the President speaks, markets focus heavily on the language used in the President's speech. If the President is cautious about the inflationary outlook for the economy ("Hawkish"), then the market sees a higher likelihood of future rate increases. Optimism in the President's outlook ("Dovish") would suggest to markets that inflation is in check and that future rate increases are less likely, with the possibility of declines in rates. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
15:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceBoE Governor speaks          
  The BoE Governor is the voice of the bank and his speeches provide the international investment community with insight into the BoE's monetary policy. When the Governor speaks, market participants pay close attention to a number of areas. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
15:30 Japan High indicator importanceBoJ Governor Speaks          
  The BoJ Governor is the voice of the bank and his speeches provide the international investment community with insight into the BoJ's monetary policy. When the Governor speaks, market participants pay close attention to a number of areas. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
19:00 United States Medium indicator importanceFED Chairman Yellen Speaks          
  No Description Given Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


U.K. unemployment boosts demand for the pound

Written by easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 18th May 2015

Labour market data from the United Kingdom revealed that the unemployment rate continued mov-ing downwards and kept the sterling on the same uptrend it began during the general elections near-ly two weeks ago and unexpectedly resulted with a Conservative party majority.

The report released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that 202,000 new jobs were filled during the first quarter of 2015, and that the unemployment rate for the same period fell to 5.5% compared to 5.6% during the previous quarter. The encouraging data provided the markets with further confidence that the labour market is continuously improving, and therefore boosted demand for the British pound. But although last week’s data pointed to an improving British econo-my, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney sounded rather concerned about the inflation levels during the BOE inflation report on Wednesday. Mark Carney’s comments haven’t really re-versed the GBP/USD’s upward trend, but maybe what he wanted to achieve was to stop the cur-rency pair from swiftly climbing back to the 1.60 level seen during November 2014. Moreover, the BOE’s dovish view of British inflation keeps blocking forecasts for an interest rate hike and could result in a sterling sell off. The GBP/USD on Wednesday gained by 0.4%, and previously on Mon-day it rose by 0.9%. On a weekly basis GBP/USD climbed from 1.54362 to 1.57265 and disap-pointed those who were expecting a pull back of the rate after the general elections.

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