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Forex update for GBPUSD and Gold

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 31st October 2014

GBPUSD technical analysis

GBP/USD moved lower from 1.6008 to hit a session low of 1.5961. Given the official ending of the US quantitative easing program earlier this week, cable has already fallen from an area of 1.6160 and a definitive close below the key 1.6000 at the end of this week may trigger further stops. Traders might be wary however with the NFP release next week.

Gold (XAU) technical analysis

The USD has rallied this week due to an end of the US stimulus package, pushing the dollar index to an area of 86.663 and consequently pushing gold down. Where we would traditionally see the Asian market bolster the gold spot price by $7 to $10 round the $1200 mark, last night we saw a sell off with the precious metal hitting $1180 early this morning, a level touched only three times in the last year. Next week’s NFP release may provide the next stimulus for gold without any major economic announcements due before then.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Friday 31st October 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
02:30 Australia High indicator importanceProducer Price Index (PPI) q/q September % 0.2 -0.1 0.2
  Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
04:30 Japan High indicator importanceBOJ Policy Meeting Minutes October        
  The BoJ publishes the summary from its monthly monetary policy meetings. These meetings are held to review economic developments of Japan and decide the central bank's monetary policy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
05:00 Japan High indicator importanceHouse Starts September % -17.1 -12.5 -14.3
  Housing Starts are the number of privately owned new homes (technically housing units) on which construction has been started over some period. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference October        
  BoJ Press Conference  
09:00 Germany High indicator importanceRetail Sales mm September % -1 2.5 -3.2
  Retail Sales mm Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:00 Germany High indicator importanceRetail Sales yy September % 0.8 0.1 2.3
  Retail Sales yy Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
12:00 Euro Zone High indicator importanceInflation Ex Food and Energy mm October %   0.8  
  An inflationary indicator that measures the monthly change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services, including housing and transportation, excluding food and energy. Measured on a monthly basis Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
12:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importanceInflation flash y/y October % 0.4 0.3 0.4
  Eurostat inflation expectations on the yearly basis. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
12:00 Euro Zone High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate September % 11.5 11.5 11.5
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:00 --- High indicator importanceContract Expiry - Soybeans (SOY) November        
  Soybeans (SOY) contract expiry - all open positions and pending orders will automatically close. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceGDP m/m August %     -0.1
  Measures the value of goods and services produced within a country on a monthly basis. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Low indicator importancePersonal Income September % 0.3 0.3 -0.2
  Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US. Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States Medium indicator importanceConsumption September % 0.1 0.5 0.2
  Represents household spending on all goods and services. Fluctuations in Private Consumption reflect the country's spending mood Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States High indicator importancePCE Index m/m September %     0.1
  A monthly measure of price changes in consumer goods and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted towards individuals and consumed by individuals. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Medium indicator importancePCE Index y/y September %   1.5 1.4
  A yearly measure of price changes in consumer goods and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted towards individuals and consumed by individuals. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceEmployment cost Q3 Qtr3 % 0.5 0.7 0.7
  Quantifies changes in employee compensation in the form of wages and benefits. Calculated based on a fixed basket of occupations. Considered by some investors to be an indicator of inflation. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
15:45 United States Medium indicator importanceChicago PMI October   60 60.5 66.2
  Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan and it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium

No light at the end of the tunnel for the euro

Written by The easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 27th October 2014

A host of data releases failed to provide some substantial movements for the EUR/USD on Thursday as it ended the trading day on the same levels where it started. The release of the Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on that day revealed that Germany’s Manufacturing PMI index increased for October to 51.8 from 49.9 for the previous month and surprised analysts who were expecting a decrease of the index to 49.5. However, France’s Manufacturing PMI for October moved downwards to 47.3 from 48.8 and failed to meet forecasts for 48.5. Either way, the euro failed once again to provide the markets with any hints that it could be en route to recovery in the near future.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the weekly release of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 17 October showed an increase to 283,000 from 266,000 in the previous week, but was almost in line with market expectations for 282,000. Nevertheless, the weak employment data were not able to have a substantial impact on the U.S. dollar and the markets, as the majority remained unconcerned due to the actual decrease of the 4-week average to 281,000. The EUR/USD experienced mild volatility on that day, except the period right after the release of the European PMI data, and ended Thursday’s trading at 1.2647.

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