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Daily technical and fundamental analysis for EURUSD, USDJPY and Oil.

Written by Imran Allana

Forex Analysis - 6th January 2015

EURUSD technical analysis

EUR/USD opened the Asian trading session at 1.1932 after recovering from 1.1887 overnight as long-dated treasury yields fell sharply and as USD/JPY led USD broadly lower. Dipping to 1.1927 early, it grinded higher still to 1.1955 with the move higher in AUD/USD keeping the USD on the defensive. Sentiment remains decidedly bearish however, with uncertainties surrounding the Greek election on January 25th and ECB policy on January 22nd.

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Tuesday 31st March 2015

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
02:30 New Zealand Medium indicator importanceBusiness Confidence March     34.4 35.8
  A measure of the prevailing sentiment among business leaders. This is based on querying expectations for new orders and impressions on the general economic health. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
08:00 Germany High indicator importanceRetail Sales mm February % -0.7 2.9 -0.5
  Retail Sales mm Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
08:00 Germany High indicator importanceRetail Sales yy February % 3.7 5.3 3.6
  Retail Sales yy Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:55 Germany Medium indicator importanceUnemployment - Change March k -12 -20 -14
  A measure of the rate of change in unemployment with the previous measured period Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
09:55 Germany High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate March % 6.5 6.5 6.4
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
09:55 Germany High indicator importanceUnemployment March Mln   2.812 2.798
  The Unemployment Rate refers to the percentage of people currently out of work, but actively seeking employment and willing to work. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceGDP Q4 q/q Qtr4 % 0.5 0.5 0.6
  Measures the quarterly value of goods and services produced within a country. Provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom High indicator importanceGDP flash yy Qtr4 % 2.7 2.7 3
  Initial GDP estimates Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:30 United Kingdom Medium indicator importanceCurrent Account Qtr4 Bln -21.5 -27 -25.3
  The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
11:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importanceInflation flash y/y March % -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
  Eurostat inflation expectations on the yearly basis. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
11:00 Euro Zone High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate February % 11.2 11.2 11.3
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 Canada High indicator importanceGDP m/m January % -0.2 0.3 -0.1
  Measures the value of goods and services produced within a country on a monthly basis. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:55 United States Low indicator importanceRedbook mm w/e %   1.1 1.2
  An index that reflects the same-store sales of a group of companies that account for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:55 United States Low indicator importanceRedbook yy w/e %   2.8 3
  An index that reflects the same-store sales of a group of companies that account for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
15:00 United States Medium indicator importanceCase Shiller 20 mm w/e % 0.6 0.9 0.9
  Examines changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This report serves as an indicator for the health of the US housing market. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
15:00 United States Medium indicator importanceCase Shiller 20 yy w/e % 4.5 4.5 4.6
  Examines changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This report serves as an indicator for the health of the US housing market. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
15:45 United States Medium indicator importanceChicago PMI March Idx 45.8 51.5 46.3
  Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan and it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Low indicator importanceConsumer Confidence March Idx 96 96.4 101.3
  The degree of optimism that consumers are expressing for the state of the economy through their saving and spending activity. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow


Crude oil surges after Saudi Arabia airstrikes

Written by easy-forex team

Weekly Outlook - 30th March 2015

Financial markets were injected with heavy doses of volatility on Thursday following the decision of a Saudi Arabian alliance to initiate an airstrike campaign against a group of rebels in Yemen known as the Houthi militant group. The announcement sparked demand for the yen by market participants, as well as crude oil and gold. However it was the ‘black gold’ that became quite popular just one day after the decision to take military action against the Yemen rebels, as the WTI on Thursday added considerably to its recent gains.

Some were largely justified to wonder why there was such an increase in demand for crude oil by the markets because Yemen is not considered as one of the ‘big players’ in regards to oil production. Indeed, the Middle Eastern country is only number 37 in oil production volume according to data back in 2013 with only 0.34% of the global oil volume. So why the dramatic surge in demand? One possible reason is the fact that Yemen is critically close to the Saudi Arabian nation, the world’s second largest oil producer after Russia, which engaged in a conflict might see disruption in oil production.

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