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USD/JPY

The broad USD strength experienced by most pairs over the last week or so continued in yesterday’s sessions.  USD/JPY rallied on the back of key US releases which included a better than expected GDP figure of 4% vs. 3.1%.  During yesterday’s action, the pair rallied from an area of 102.26 to highs in the 102.82 area and hit resistance of 103 on the back of FOMC statement volatility.  Overnight saw a slow drift lower to hit a low of 102.75.  Unemployment claims due from the US today at 13:30 BST could prove to be a mover for the pair, but the market may be waiting for tomorrow’s jobs report before taking any significant positions.

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.3398 after holding up well against most pairs, with the exception of the USD.  The pair saw little trading overnight, holding between 1.3393-1.3400.  The market looks largely short and this could be the reason behind the currencies buoyancy despite the much better than expected US GDP data and higher US yields. 

 

GBP/USD

Cable grinded higher overnight despite the weak GfK consumer confidence data showing a drop to -2 vs 2.  GBP/USD was able to move higher from 1.6906 to 1.6923, looking to make tracks away from a 1.6890 spike low seen post US GDP.  With a lack of UK data out today and only the US unemployment claims due, cable traders may be bracing themselves for the NFP due tomorrow.

 

AUD/USD

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Financial Calendar

United Kingdom & Euro Zone

Friday 1st August 2014

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
03:00 China Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July   51.4 51 51.7
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
03:00 Australia High indicator importanceProducer Price Index (PPI) q/q July % 0.7 0.9 -0.1
  Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
03:45 China High indicator importanceHSBC Final Manufacturing PMI July   52 52 51.7
  Survey of about 430 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It's a leading indicator of economic health - busi Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
05:30 Japan High indicator importanceBoJ Governor Speaks August        
  The BoJ Governor is the voice of the bank and his speeches provide the international investment community with insight into the BoJ's monetary policy. When the Governor speaks, market participants pay close attention to a number of areas. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
10:00 Euro Zone Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July   51.9 51.9  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
10:30 United Kingdom Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing July   57.2 57.5  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
14:30 United States Low indicator importancePersonal Income June % 0.4 0.4  
  Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US. Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
14:30 United States High indicator importanceConsumption Sentiment June % 0.4 0.2  
  Comprehensive measure of how much consumers will spend in the specified quarter, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importancePCE Index m/m June %   0.2  
  A monthly measure of price changes in consumer goods and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted towards individuals and consumed by individuals. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importanceNon Farm Payrolls - Net Change July k 233 288  
  Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States High indicator importanceUnemployment Rate July % 6.1 6.1  
  Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Importance:
High indicator importanceHigh
14:30 United States Low indicator importanceAverage Earnings July % 0.2 0.2  
  Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Importance:
Low indicator importanceLow
15:30 Canada Medium indicator importancePMI Manufacturing August     56.3  
  Gauge for the overall performance of the manufacturing sector Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium
16:00 United States Medium indicator importanceISM Manufacturing July   56 55.3  
  ISM Manufacturing assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. Importance:
Medium indicator importanceMedium


Low CPI data mirrors Eurozone’s fragile economy

Written by Jay Elliott-Purdy

Weekly Outlook - 21st July 2014

The release of Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the best indicator of an economy’s inflation, last Thursday revealed that the gauge remained at low levels. The index for June managed to increase to 0.1% from a -0.1% for the previous month and was in line with expectations, whereas on an annual basis the index remained on the 0.5% level and was also the same with what analysts had expected. The core CPI also increased marginally to 0.8% from 0.7% increase in May. The European Central Bank (ECB) noted earlier this month that their expectations on inflationary levels remained unchanged, and ECB’s President Mario Draghi said that he expected inflation to remain low during the coming months.

Low inflation is currently the Eurozone’s biggest threat to economic recovery, and policymakers are working towards avoiding any further decrease. The ECB last month decided to trim its benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.15%, and the deposit rate from zero to -0.1% in an effort to encourage banks to lend to businesses. Eurozone’s common currency had a weekly loss of 0.6% and the EUR/USD is traded at 1.3518.

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