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AUD / USD Trading Outlook

Friday 11th November

AUD/USD recovered from 1.0052 lows and today has moved back above the critical 1.0200 level. The next level to be tested is 1.0275. In the bigger picture the pair has been in a downtrend from 1.0700 following the RBA rate cut. The day candle chart reveals a doji candle from yesterday which can be interpreted as a signal the trend is about to change direction however from a fundamental point of view the RBA may cut again which can lead to further AUD weakness.

Thursday 10th November

AUD/USD fell from 1.0400 breaking the critical 1.0200 level making 1.0052 lows. As pressure mounts on the pair it could break to the downside of 1.0000 although on the first test of this level we may see some short-term bounces. The pivot point is 1.0200 with a preference to sell below this. In the news Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 5.2% for October.

Wednesday 9th November

AUD/USD has come lower following the other USD crosses, from 1.0400 down to 1.0200. The 1.0200 low is acting as a critical support level, last tested 3rd Nov. 2011, with the bears in the market unsure whether to sell below this. Australia’s trade balance dropped to 2564mln vs. 3000mln expected. The RBA did recently comment that they see the global slowdown will affect them and so a lower export numbers are anticipated. Further signs of slowdown may cause the RBA to cut rates again and hence the AUD could weaken further below parity in the coming months. With the downside prevailing 1.0320 is the pivot point with a preference to sell below this and 1.02 is the initial support, if this breaks 1.0105 is the next support.

Tuesday 8th November

AUD/USD initially came down to test the 1.0280-90 support zone before returning to trade above 1.0300. Data last night revealed a drop in Septembers trade balance to 2564mln (AUD) from 3100mln last. This news was the driving force behind a lower price for AUD and it also took a knock against NZD. The pivot point is 1.0260 and in the near term there is a preference to buy above this however the price may struggle to move through 1.0385-90 a level test three times in yesterday’s trading.

Monday 7th November

AUD/USD upward moves have been capped by the 1.0390-1.0410 resistance zone and downward pressure appears to be building as the dips are getting lower; this morning the price made a low down to 1.0280. However, there is a critical initial support at 1.0260 followed by 1.0200. Tomorrow morning at 00:30 GMT the NAB business conditions and Trade Balance, which is forecasted to show a healthy figure, will be released from Australia.

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