GBP / USD Trading Outlook
GBP/USD moved lower as the USD strengthened off the back of risk aversion as the market reacted to the cancellation of the EU leaders meeting. The meeting would have given investors an indication on when the next tranche of rescue funds to Greece would be paid but for now we are left with the possibility of no transfer which means Greece will be unable to pay the interest of their debt and hence will default. The question is will EU leaders let this happen?
The pair fell from 1.5735 down to 1.5680 with further moves down this morning to 1.5660. There is a key pivot point at 1.5710 and the preference is to sell below this with initial profit target set at 1.5600. The RSI also points towards a new down leg.
GBP/USD gains have stalled out just shy of the 200-Day SMA for now and the market looks to be entering a fresh period of consolidation before considering the next major move. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.5930 and 1.5700 respectively, and a daily close above or below will be required for clearer directional bias. A close below 1.5700 could open the door for some broader underlying bearish resumption, while back above 1.5930 exposes the October highs by 1.6170 further up. A downgrade by Moody’s of the UK will have a huge effect on possible gains by GBP, With CPI and Retail index figures coming out this morning and giving us a good outlook over the next month we may be faced with two contradictory perspectives on the health of the GBP however a downgrade would have a severe short term effect on the GBP/USD price.
GBP/USD experienced a mass of selling on Thursday after the Bank of England announced an increase in their asset purchase facility, taking it from £275 billion to £325 billion, sending Cable down from a high of 1.5885 to a low of 1.5730, by the close on Friday. Cable opened overnight at 1.5770 and experienced a good rally to a session high of 1.5827 before settling in a range in time for the European open. Technical analysis is pointing to a lower day for Cable with a pivot of 1.5820 and support at 1.5725 and 1.5700.
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