GBP / USD Trading Outlook
GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.5895 in the near-term and should post a rebound to 1.5965. A break through the resistance could open up a challenge on the 1.5990-1.6000 area. In the bigger picture upward moves may be limited by the 1.6000 big figure given that Bernanke’s comments continue to support sentiment that there will not be a third round of quantitative easing in the US any time soon. The UK purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing posted a good result today at 54.3 vs. 51.3 which has supported the pound. There is no news due out of the US this afternoon hence technical levels are likely to play a larger role.
GBP/USD dipped below 1.5900 as US dollar strengthened overnight following a hawkish speech from the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. He acknowledged that the unemployment rate is falling faster than expected. His upbeat comments quashed any concern of a third round of quantitative easing. However, the pair was unable to break below the 1.5895 pivot point and has since rebounded moving back towards the 1.5950 resistance. A break higher would open the path to 1.6000. The market now look towards the US personal consumption expenditure data at 13:30 GMT where a healthy figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and then the ISM manufacturing at 15:00. Bernanke will be talking at 15:00, the market will be listening closely for additional hints on the US economy’s direction.
The pair had a strong overnight session following on from its positive day yesterday, breaking the resistance at 1.5900. We could see some choppy action today with the news coming out and heightened attention on the price of oil that will be affecting all dollar pairs. Support lies at 1.5870 and resistance is at an adventurous 1.6095.
GBP/USD has edged up in the UK session to test the 1.5875 highs. The USD is weaker across the board as equities bounce back. The UK CBI reported sales came out better than expected at -2 vs. -12. And we have US durable goods orders at 13:30 GMT. This is an important figure and is forecasted to be -1% which may curb risk appetite in the short term. From a technical stance the pair remains in its uptrend and the RSI is well directed hence there is a preference to buy from the 1.5810 pivot point with profit targets at 1.5900 and 1.5925.
GBP/USD came to test 1.5900 in the US session on Friday. This week the markets have opened with a fall in equity prices and a stronger US dollar on global concerns that rising energy prices could hurt corporate profits. The pair has sunk to the mid-1.58’s and there is room for it to fall further down to the 1.5820 pivot point. If the pivot holds there is a preference to buy with profit targets at 1.5900 and 1.5925.
There is no news out of the UK today and over the weekend BoE MPC member Fisher repeated that he has an ‘open mind’ on whether more easing is needed. However, he said if the UK growth outlook does not deteriorate further then ‘that will put more weight on the arguments for stopping rather than continuing’. The MPC are likely to wait until May before deciding on further easing. Out of the US at 15:00 we have pending home sales for January.
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