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USD / JPY Trading Outlook

Friday 4th May

USD/JPY was lifted to the initial resistance at 80.50 yesterday before trades piled in at the high to sell and the price came back to the 80.00/15 support. Overnight the pair traded flat whilst Japan is on holiday and the market awaits the NFP result. Technical indicators are showing a preference to buy from 79.95 however the pair is likely to react to the fundamental data out of the US later today.

Thursday 3rd May

USD/JPY traded flat overnight, whilst Tokyo is on holiday, sitting above the 80.00 support. USD strength has lifted the pair to 80.30 in the London open. Intraday technical indicators have a preference to buy from 79.95 with the initial resistance eyed at 80.50. The pair are holding above the critical level ahead of the NFP result on Friday. According to IFR markets USD/JPY is unlikely to be on the radar as a pair to trade during the ECB meeting.

Wednesday 2nd May

USD/JPY broke to the topside of 80.00 in yesterdays US session after the USD was spurred on by a positive ISM manufacturing figure giving the market confidence that the US economy is recovering well and there is no need for further easing. The pair popped up to 80.60 in the London open before trading back down to 80.30. It appears this pair is sensitive to the Feds QE expectations. If the US data this week (ending with the NFP results on Friday) is strong enough to push back Fed QE expectations then USD/JPY may reach 80.80/81.00. Conversely, weak US data will put USD/JPY back under pressure and we could see the pair trading under 80.00 again with the BoJ jitters firing up again. The key data today will be the ADP employment figure which will be an indication of USD/JPY trend. 

Tuesday 1st May

USD/JPY has been lifted in the London open as the US dollar takes on a slight rally across the board. The pair has been taken from 79.65 to 79.85 however it may face difficultly passing to the topside of the 80.00 pivot point and technical indicators have a preference to sell from here with profit targets eyed at 79.60. The fall below 80.00 has prompted the first round of verbal intervention with Nakao, Japans Minister of Finance, saying that they are monitoring the FX market and would act in a timely manner however USD/JPY did not react to this. Stops are eyed at 79.70 and 79.50 but a threat of intervention could keep the price afloat.

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